Posted by fabriziogiudici
on August 15, 2010 at 3:45 AM PDT
In my previous post I said that the new Oracle vs Google war might have bad as well as good effects on the community. As usual, most people are screaming about the possible bad effects. I'd like to share an hypothetical scenario where the effects are good.
Please note: it's not a forecast. I'm not able to do that. Maybe things will be really bad. In my scenario there is for sure a considerable dose of wishful thinking. Take it just as a mental exercise to demonstrate that there are at least chances for a happy end.
What could happen is:
- Oracle and Google come to a deal, so Google licenses Java™ and Oracle gets a share of the Android revenues.
- Google might even be convinced to have JavaFX on Android - thus JavaFX Mobile is suddenly resuscitated (there are smart and dumb ways to integrate JavaFX on Android, and I'm not talking of them now). BTW, this point is not relevant for the rest of the scenario.
- Oracle and Google distribute also on Android a compatibility layer for running most of the current JME applications. At the same time, Oracle announces that it won't develop JME further and that it will assist its customers to migrate to pure Android. In this way, the move won't erode the number of pure Android developers, instead it will bring in a massive amount of the current JME developers. To make Google feel safe, the JME compatibility layer could have a limited lifespan (e.g. two years), enough for migrate, but too short for some people to still consider JME strategic.
- Android in the end becomes Java™, supported by two big actors and not only one.
- Nokia and RIM find themselves in the most complete isolation. Either they try to keep JME alive by themselves (difficult, because Oracle might legally prevent this from happen), or they try to survive with their own SDKs, or... they understood that it's better to migrate to Android.
- At the end of the games, the mobile world ends up with 70% of Java and 25% of iPhone. Google definitely wins the mobile war, even though it has to share the glory (and the money) with Oracle.
- We as a community win all the same, because we get with a defragmented Java™ on the mobile and Java™ is the winner technology of the mobile world, relegating the competition to a niche, just like the old good glorious times of JME.
This would make sense on why Oracle didn't announce anything serious on JME and JavaFX Mobile in the past months. They probably waited for Android to surpass iPhone (it could be not a chance that this happened in the same days in which the complaint was made public) to ante up.